My biggest question is: Why did I think it was going to be so close?
If you had asked me a month or two before the election, I would have told you that Obama was going to win. He had numerous events to point to as proof of his presidential leadership. These things included the auto industry bailout, health care reform, and the death of Osama Bin Laden. Plus he had the invaluable advantage of being the incumbent. Once ObamaCare was ruled Constitutional by the Supreme Court, I was convinced that Obama would win a second term.
But then why was I so surprised on election day?
I always knew that Romney had a shot at the oval office, no doubt about it. If young people and minorities could somehow get excited about him, Romney would win. This being my first closely-watched election, I thought it was completely possible. But he didn't get enough of the minority or youth votes.
According to a Washington Post exit poll (which admits a margin of error of ~4%), Obama bested Romney nationally among 18-29 year olds 60% to 37% (here's the link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html). In the swing states, Obama consistently captured ~60% of the 18-29 year old demographic while Romney could only syphon off percentages in the 30's. Why did young people vote so overwhelmingly for the President? I have a few ideas, but I'll leave them for later.
Now let's look at how certain races affected the outcome of the election. According to the same source, white people, who made up 72% of the people that voted nationally, voted more for Romney (59%) than they did for Obama (39%). That is a difference of 20%. Keep this number in the back of your head. Black people made up 13% of the people that voted, but 93% of them voted for Obama while only 6% backed Romney. Did you get that? 93% of the black population that voted in the 2012 election voted for Obama. The disparity between the candidates among black voters was 87%! How did Obama do so well among black voters?
The hispanic and asian votes were 71% and 73% for Obama, 27% and 26% for Romney. We don't witness quite the disparity as we did with black voters, but we still notice a difference in the 40%'s. It is obvious that minorities voted overwhelmingly for the President. Why is that so?
Now for some conjecture.
I asked myself why young people voted for Obama instead of Romney. It is because young people are more familiar with and likely to adopt liberal social views. We are the ones with gay friends. We are the ones that want abortions. We are the ones that buck the traditional trends of our parents. America is becoming more socially liberal every day and this is why Obama won the youth vote.
Also, young people either don't have the time or the desire to analyze the more complex economic issues. Social issues are easier to understand, easier to have an opinion on, and easier to draw an opnion about a President on. Obama's promotion of liberal social policies and the fact that young people only attempt to understand the easiest policy decisions gave him a huge advantage. Romney's social views, while thriving among certain religious groups, are slowly diverging from the average American's.
Ok, but why do minorities vote for Obama? Well, I think some black people vote for Obama because he's black. There, I said it. I'm sure there are plenty of black people who are aware of the issues, aware of Obama's position on them, and vote for him because they share the same view. But I also think there are black people out there who see a black man and a white man running for the Presidency and they choose to vote for the black man simply because he is black. This would help explain the huge disparity in black voters (remember the 87%?).
Also, minorities might support policies that benefit them even if they infringe upon the freedoms of other Americans. Indeed, it would be tempting to do so myself, but I like to think that I value freedom over any policy that would directly benefit me. Obama proposes more programs that benefit minorities and these generally come at some cost to the rest of the country. This could also explain why minorities vote more for Obama.
In conclusion, Romney lost largely due to the fact that America as a whole is becoming more socially liberal. Also, Obama supports more policies that directly benefit minorities while Romney concentrates on things like jobs and the economy, which are more difficult to understand.
Some of these ideas might need fleshing out and if you have questions or comments, please post them to this page and I'll try to address them. Expect more posts about taxes, the future of the GOP, and gun control. Thanks for reading.
