Thoughts on the Presidential Election

My biggest question is: Why did I think it was going to be so close?

If you had asked me a month or two before the election, I would have told you that Obama was going to win. He had numerous events to point to as proof of his presidential leadership. These things included the auto industry bailout, health care reform, and the death of Osama Bin Laden. Plus he had the invaluable advantage of being the incumbent. Once ObamaCare was ruled Constitutional by the Supreme Court, I was convinced that Obama would win a second term.

But then why was I so surprised on election day?

I always knew that Romney had a shot at the oval office, no doubt about it. If young people and minorities could somehow get excited about him, Romney would win. This being my first closely-watched election, I thought it was completely possible. But he didn't get enough of the minority or youth votes.

According to a Washington Post exit poll (which admits a margin of error of ~4%), Obama bested Romney nationally among 18-29 year olds 60% to 37% (here's the link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html). In the swing states, Obama consistently captured ~60% of the 18-29 year old demographic while Romney could only syphon off percentages in the 30's. Why did young people vote so overwhelmingly for the President? I have a few ideas, but I'll leave them for later.

Now let's look at how certain races affected the outcome of the election. According to the same source, white people, who made up 72% of the people that voted nationally, voted more for Romney (59%) than they did for Obama (39%). That is a difference of 20%. Keep this number in the back of your head. Black people made up 13% of the people that voted, but 93% of them voted for Obama while only 6% backed Romney. Did you get that? 93% of the black population that voted in the 2012 election voted for Obama. The disparity between the candidates among black voters was 87%! How did Obama do so well among black voters?

The hispanic and asian votes were 71% and 73% for Obama, 27% and 26% for Romney. We don't witness quite the disparity as we did with black voters, but we still notice a difference in the 40%'s. It is obvious that minorities voted overwhelmingly for the President. Why is that so?

Now for some conjecture.

I asked myself why young people voted for Obama instead of Romney. It is because young people are more familiar with and likely to adopt liberal social views. We are the ones with gay friends. We are the ones that want abortions. We are the ones that buck the traditional trends of our parents. America is becoming more socially liberal every day and this is why Obama won the youth vote.

Also, young people either don't have the time or the desire to analyze the more complex economic issues. Social issues are easier to understand, easier to have an opinion on, and easier to draw an opnion about a President on. Obama's promotion of liberal social policies and the fact that young people only attempt to understand the easiest policy decisions gave him a huge advantage. Romney's social views, while thriving among certain religious groups, are slowly diverging from the average American's.

Ok, but why do minorities vote for Obama? Well, I think some black people vote for Obama because he's black. There, I said it. I'm sure there are plenty of black people who are aware of the issues, aware of Obama's position on them, and vote for him because they share the same view. But I also think there are black people out there who see a black man and a white man running for the Presidency and they choose to vote for the black man simply because he is black. This would help explain the huge disparity in black voters (remember the 87%?).

Also, minorities might support policies that benefit them even if they infringe upon the freedoms of other Americans. Indeed, it would be tempting to do so myself, but I like to think that I value freedom over any policy that would directly benefit me. Obama proposes more programs that benefit minorities and these generally come at some cost to the rest of the country. This could also explain why minorities vote more for Obama.

In conclusion, Romney lost largely due to the fact that America as a whole is becoming more socially liberal. Also, Obama supports more policies that directly benefit minorities while Romney concentrates on things like jobs and the economy, which are more difficult to understand.

Some of these ideas might need fleshing out and if you have questions or comments, please post them to this page and I'll try to address them. Expect more posts about taxes, the future of the GOP, and gun control. Thanks for reading.

Thoughts on Voting Laws

As I must admit in all my posts, I should do more research on this topic before I publish my opinions on it. That being said, I would like to write out my initial feelings about this subject.

In the news recently there have been several stories about controversial voting laws. As far as I know, these laws would require some sort of identification, like a driver’s license or passport, to be presented by the citizen in order to cast a vote. I see no problem with this. It should be no problem for all legal citizens of the US. I carry my driver’s license everywhere. Doesn’t everyone? Maybe I come from an exclusive area of the US where everyone happens to have and carry their driver’s licenses, but nonetheless this is the way I believe the majority of the population functions.

Now if the whole of the US had and carried ID’s, there would be no controversy. But obviously, not everyone has government issued identification. This percentage of the population has to be small. I think I know one person who doesn’t have a driver’s license; and she probably has a SS card or passport or some other kind of ID that would validate her vote. Then again I’m not living in the NYC projects where I imagine a higher percentage of the population doesn’t have proper identification.

So this is where the democrats start whining. Young people and minorities are more likely to vote democrat (just my thinking, but I’m sure there are some studies that show this is the general trend). Also, young people and minorities are less likely to have proper identification. So the democrats, in trying to save some of their key demographics, are raising a big fuss over these voter ID laws. But they are not doing so because of some objection to the substance, validity, or benefit of the law, but because the law will potentially diminish the amount of people that vote democrat.

So why do we want this law in the first place? There must have been some event that spurred its creation. I imagine it was a bunch of non-citizens (is that a word?) that managed to cast votes. Indeed, that would motivate me to write and pass such a law as the one we’ve been discussing. But then what would I say to the democrats? What would I say to the citizens in the US that can’t vote because they don’t have proper identification? I would say “Get some proper identification and then you can vote!” It’s as simple as that! How much does a driver’s license cost? $15? I know, I too find it outrageous for a small piece of rectangular plastic, but it’s manageable. I’m not sure how one goes about getting a SS card or a birth certificate, but aren’t those similar processes? Does anyone know the easiest way to obtain proper identification from the government? For me and I imagine the vast majority of the voting population, it has always been extremely easy, even if mundane, to get government issued ID’s.

Here’s another point that might come off as a little brash. If a certain citizen does not have enough money to get a proper ID, they probably don’t have enough money to stay politically informed. If they’re not politically informed, would they be voting? I don’t think so. In my experience, not even all those who are aware of the current political scene end up voting. So I imagine that those who are not politically informed vote even less often. This argument just serves to say that those who don’t have ID’s are less likely to be politically informed and less likely to cast a sincere and seriously considered vote. Don’t get me wrong, they still have the right to vote, it’s just that they are less likely to do so.

So that’s my spiel. I’ll try to do some research and find some hard numbers. As of right now, it seems to me that democrats are just complaining about a good law because it weakens them in the fall election.